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How bad do we think it's going to get?
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Author:  Sussex [ Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:14 pm ]
Post subject:  How bad do we think it's going to get?

Any one who knows me knows I'm not a doom-monger, far from it.

But I have serious concerns about the effect this bug stuff will have on our trade.

Financially I can see many drivers being ruined, and many firms going under. Especially those specialising in the corporate or airport trade.

As for the health of our generally unhealthy drivers, well I don't really want to go there. :sad:

Author:  StuartW [ Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: How bad to we think it's going to get?

Sussex wrote:
As for the health of our generally unhealthy drivers, well I don't really want to go there. :sad:

Indeed, but even with my own health issues I'm assuming I could cope with it without having to get treatment.* And self-isolation for a week or two wouldn't be a particular problem, as things stand at least.

So I'm 5% worried about catching the thing, but 95% worried about paying the bills.

I could increase my working hours by 20% or so if necessary, but would that cover the shortfall?

Of course, it all depends to what extent trade collapses - 20%, 50%, 70% down, or even worse, who knows?

Of course, different drivers and different businesses will be affected more or less than others, depending on the local market and where the bulk of their work comes from normally.

I certainly don't depend on airport work, for example, but many do a lot such work here, and if they're not earning there then because they're mostly HC plates they'll end up on the ranks more instead, which is where the vast majority of my jobs come from. (There's one such driver behind me on the rank as I type. Haven't seen him in ages, so I'm guessing he's maybe not making so much from the airport runs etc.)

Could witter on for hours here about local factors and the like, but would ultimately be a waste of time, so we'll just have to suck it and see :sad:

*Maybe I'm barking up the wrong tree, but for my late-50s age group I think my lungs and heart are above average efficiency, so hoping that means I'd cope relatively well. On the other hand, my immune system is slightly compromised, so who knows :?

And I'm not a doctor :-o

Author:  grandad [ Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: How bad to we think it's going to get?

I am due to have a gastric bypass at the end of the month. I may postpone it until this Corona virus has passed. I would hate to spent the best part of £14,000 on the op and then die from the virus.

Author:  edders23 [ Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: How bad to we think it's going to get?

At the moment the airport side of the business has fallen off a cliff :sad: 90 percent of what was pre booked for the year has cancelled

Town trade is quiet but on Saturday we got inundated as it seems everyone wanted to panic shop at Morrisons but I only have a skeleton crew on Saturdays so we had turn the bulk of it down.

What would worry me most is if we have an Italian style lock down preventing us from working because whilst most the drivers would initially think goody a weeks holiday after 3 to 4 weeks of no money coming in well............

As for the economy I can see it causing a lot of damage and that will depress work further once the worst has passed.

The one country that will come out of this well will ironically be the Chinese as they managed to stop the spread our government has decided to let it spread

Author:  Sussex [ Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: How bad do we think it's going to get?

I wonder if during this sorry period we will change, to a degree, from carriers of people with goods to carriers of goods to people.

Me thinks flexibility/adaptability are the two words we all need to take on.

Part of me wants to f*** off to the other place, but the buggers have stopped tourist/family visas.

Author:  grandad [ Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:18 am ]
Post subject:  Re: How bad to we think it's going to get?

edders23 wrote:

The one country that will come out of this well will ironically be the Chinese as they managed to stop the spread our government has decided to let it spread

I don't think that is correct. The Chinese spread is about the same ass the spread in other countries. A slow start then a big jump and then it tails off. The Chinese may come out of it sooner because they had it first.

Author:  Sussex [ Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: How bad do we think it's going to get?

I also wonder how many of those millions of people using the #Be Kind etc etc are the same people who’s utter greed has stripped the shelves of the supermarkets?

I suspect most of them.

Author:  edders23 [ Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: How bad do we think it's going to get?

Sussex wrote:
I also wonder how many of those millions of people using the #Be Kind etc etc are the same people who’s utter greed has stripped the shelves of the supermarkets?

I suspect most of them.



this morning I decided to nip to waitrose for a couple of bits now normally if you rock up about 5 to 10 the car park is only about a quarter full and store is pretty easy to get round with a brief wait for the check outs to open. This morning at 09.55 car park was 90 percent full shop full of people with trolleys quite full. I was lucky and got onto a checkout just before they started serving once out you had quite a job getting back to the vehicle with the traffic queueing to get in the car park was already full. I was in the 8 seater so very difficult to get out of the space again with several cars badly parked sticking right out of their spaces but you couldn't exit because of the queues of cars trying to enter with probably 2 to 3 hundred cars trying to get into an already full car park :roll:

Author:  wannabeeahack [ Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: How bad do we think it's going to get?

Ive been diabetic (T2) since 1998
Shingles 2016
Kidney stones/stents 2017
Heart attack 2019

no flu since i told em where to stick thier flu jabs

we are all gonna die one day

Author:  wannabeeahack [ Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: How bad do we think it's going to get?

i can make a start on my OO gauge railway

Author:  edders23 [ Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: How bad do we think it's going to get?

wannabeeahack wrote:
i can make a start on my OO gauge railway


What are you going to model ?

Author:  wannabeeahack [ Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: How bad do we think it's going to get?

edders23 wrote:
wannabeeahack wrote:
i can make a start on my OO gauge railway


What are you going to model ?


Only a small setup to get the wife used to the fact shes losing house space...

goods trains and peco track

Author:  grandad [ Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: How bad do we think it's going to get?

wannabeeahack wrote:
edders23 wrote:
wannabeeahack wrote:
i can make a start on my OO gauge railway


What are you going to model ?


Only a small setup to get the wife used to the fact shes losing house space...

goods trains and peco track

I used to have mine in the loft space above the extension in a house we had many years ago. Unfortunately everything is now boxed up and hasn't been used in about 28 years.

Author:  StuartW [ Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: How bad do we think it's going to get?

Nice to see that those of us with significant health issues are being so stoical about it all 8-[

But I don't get the numbers in all this at all.

Apparently 17,000 people in England die from flu annually.

But the coronavirus death toll in China is just 3,000, and apparently it's peaked there.

And China's population is something like 28 times that of England.

So adjusted by population, the Chinese death toll is not much more than 100 for a population equivalent to England's. So that's 100 coronavirus deaths compared to 17,000 annually from flu? :-s

Author:  x-ray [ Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: How bad do we think it's going to get?

Comparing last week with the same week a year before (I usually find this is a good barometer) I was down £20-£30 a day. There are a lot less people coming off the trains, which is my usual rank during the day. A lot of the big companies HQ’s are around here Lloyd’s banking group (which encompasses Bank of America, MBNA,) Airbus UK, Raytheon, Iceland, Marks and Spencer’s financial etc, have banned all non-essential travel. I’m expecting even more companies may have sent emails out over the weekend saying the same thing. My other big concern is that they will get so use to working from home and video conferencing that they may adopt that in the future if it’s possible, companies will save money and it’s also good for their environmental image, especially for Airbus.
We were about to start a large extension on the house soon but we may put it off for a year or so. Thing is, if other people do the same I may get a better price off the three builders we are about to get quotes from. #-o

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