Think I'll maybe leave my other two comparison tables for next week - I'm kind of losing sight of the wood for the trees, so if anyone else is actually reading this then it might all seem a bit, er, something or other
But maybe a more straightforward way of demonstrating that TPTP's fuel analysis tables are a bit bonkers is to look at another table they've usefully provided. Which is a
UK national summary, and ignores the regional/Wales/Scotland/NI breakdown, but instead provides a slightly more detailed breakdown of the fuel types. Recall that TPTP's main table breaks the fuel types into three - fossil fuel, hybrids and full electric.
So there's slightly more detail here as regards the categories, and they're in order of number:

Which aren't difficult to reconcile to the main table:
Diesel - 26.8%
Petrol - 24.5%
That'll be 'fossil fuels' in the main table, which is shown as 51% in 'all regions combined'.
Then above there's 'petrol hybrid' (26.6%), 'plug-in hybrid' (6.9%) and 'diesel hybrid' (1.5%). Those total bang on 35%, which is obviously the same as the overall 'hybrid' figure in the main table with the regional breakdown.
Then there's 'electric' above, which is 13.7%, and obviously rounded to 14% and described as 'full electric' in the main table.
So that's just to reconcile the figures on the two tables on page 27 of the TPTP report, basically.
But the table above immediately reveals why the regional figures look a bit doolally. I mean, across the UK, and across both the HC and PHV codes, there are almost as many petrol cars as diesel?
And for every
two diesel HCs or PHVs across the UK, there's
one EV?
Make it make sense
I mean, go back to the DfT's summary table for the two codes. Of course, you'd really need to weight these numbers to be truly accurate, and unlike the TPTP table above these don't include Scotland and Northern Ireland.
But compare the %ages in the petrol and diesel columns below to the TPTP petrol and diesel columns above - they're in completely different ball parks
HCs in England @ 31 March 2024, extract from DfT stats
PHVs in England @ 31 March 2024, extract from DfT stats
And then compare TPTP's figure of 14% for 'electric' with the DfT's figures ('battery electric') - there's just no comparison...
Note also that TPTP says that around 7% of vehicles are 'plug-in hybrid' but, apart from the DfT's figure of 14.2% in that category for London PHVs, elsewhere in the country they're effectively non-existent according to DfT. And the 14.2% figure for PHVs in London doesn't really explain TPTP's 7% figure across the UK for both codes.
Ah, but of course where do the LEVCs fit into all of this, which are presumably the 'range-extended electric' column in the DfT's figures?
Well, they'll presumably be included as 'plug-in hybrids' in TPTP's numbers, thus helping explain the 7% plug-in hybrid figure for the whole UK
And indeed elsewhere in the TPTP report they usefully state that, of 1,499 total responses to the survey, 42 are London LEVCs, and 25 are non-London LEVCs.
So LEVCs equate to 4.5% of the total responses to the TPTP survey.
Ball park figures - across England and Wales, including London there were about 323,000 vehicles over both trades according to DfT.
There must be about 8,000 LEVCs in London, using the DfT's figure of 53.7% 'range extendable electric' HC figure for the capital is to be believed.
Can't be bothered crunching the numbers precisely, but outside of London the equivalent figure in the DfT's stats looks like it's around 1.0%. Which would mean 600 or so LEVCs in England and Wales outside of London.
So you're comparing 8,000 LEVCs in London with 600 outside London.
Yet, accordion to the TPTP survey, 42 out of that 8,000 responded, while a huge 25 of the 600 outside London responded.
That doesn't look right at all - I thought that maybe the TPTP results overall might have been skewed by overrepresentation of London HCDs, but in fact London LEVC drivers represent about 2.8% of total respondents to the TPTP, while the 8,000 or so LEVCs in London represent about 2.5% of the total 323,000 HCs and PHVs in the DfT stats. So in fact London HCD representation in the TPTP survey looks about right. On the other hand, LEVC drivers are hugely underrepresented in the survey outside of London - if there genuinely are 600 or so such vehicles outside London, then that's just 0.19%, or around three such drivers should have responded to the survey, but they actually got 25
Of course, maybe the DfT figures are wrong - 600 LEVCs outside of London about one year ago?
I'd have guessed there would be more, so who knows. (And, of course, the Scotland and Northern Ireland LEVC responses will be included in TPTP, but not in DfT, but that surely wouldn't explain the discrepancy...).
Of course, the overrepresentation of LEVC drivers outside of London would be eminently predictable from the kick off - if you're driving an LEVC, you're likely to be much more invested in the trade than the average driver, thus more likely to take an interest in the industry press like TaxiPoint, and thus much more likely to respond to the survey. On the other hand, to that extent you'd expect a similar overrepresentation of London LEVC drivers, but that just doesn't seem to be the case at all.
Anyway, you thought statistics was an easy subject?
And I've barely even scratched the surface at the DfT's methodology, and how that might skew the results...
But forget all that, and just look at the TPTP table at the top of the thread. And, in particular, the claim that petrol and diesel numbers are broadly similar, and that for every two diesels there's one EV
No, me neither...
