Those numbers don't ring true, somehow
Not that I'm saying they're incorrect, but the implication seems to be that renewals will be similar in the next two years. So with c. 3,000 renewing in the year to April 2024, if that was repeated in the next two years then they'd end up with something like 9,000 drivers a couple of years down the line, as opposed to c. 17,000 currently
(And there were 23,000 in 2019?)
Somehow can't see that happening - if 3,000 of the current 17,000 renewed in the last financial year, then with three-year badges an average of 7,000 must have renewed in each of the prior two years. So why would it suddenly drop from 7,000 to 3,000 in the latest year?
Seems no obvious explanation...
Only thing I can think of is that the 3,000 renewing in the year to April 2024 would have last renewed in the year to April 2021. Which would have included peak lockdown. To that extent maybe a lot of them didn't renew in that year, but waited until the subsequent two years. So the next two years of renewals should show a much bigger number than the 3,000 from last year...
(Of course, all that would assume that during lockdown drivers could delay renewing until they wanted to, but I can't recall exactly how London did it...)
(And for simplicity's sake I've assumed all the numbers are renewals rather than new badges...of course, the newbies would partly explain the number as well, because few or no new badges would have been issued in the year to April 2021, so to that extent they wouldn't be renewing in the year to April 2024, hence partly explaining the low renewals in the year to April 2024.)
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