Cruisin' Cabby wrote:
I'm not too concerned with what you may think of the test used in the provinces, but I'm sure TfL being the big organisation that they are, will devise their own with London's particular needs in mind. (Hopefully)
I'm not sure where you get your information from but no matter where a licensed cab goes in the GLA area he may get hailed. This area covered by 'green' badges is about 620 sq miles. Where you said AFAIK, you have simply got this wrong - unless you work London and know different.
The further away from the city centre, obviously the lesser the demand, and if you get into the suburbs there are 'yellow' badge drivers servicing these areas. There are certain areas where demand is not being sufficiently met (due to these areas becoming more affluent in recent years) and there is a pilot scheme being conducted by the PCO in some parts of South London where the 'green' & 'yellow' badge areas will overlap to try and give a better service to the public in those areas.
As regards the 'unmet demand' test, I'm not sure that you could apply it to London in any way that makes up for its inadequacies elsewhere, but I'm keen to hear any suggestions.
The point I was trying to make (perhaps not too clearly) is that the unmet demand test in the provinces largely favours the status quo and can be manipulated in the interests of whatever vested interests happen to benefit from it, and to that extent I don't think your proposal is realistic in policy terms, assuming that the interests of London cabbies are balanced against the wider public interest.
I haven't been in London for over a decade, but stayed there for over around three years, in Herne Hill, Sydenham and Walthamstow.
Now I don't know if these are yellow or green badge areas, but my recollection is that they were not really served by black cabs, and as far as I know pre-booking with one of the circuits would be the only option, and this would be quite expensive.
But whether these areas are green or yellow badge, my point is that if you look at demand from the standpoint of the current situation then the unmet demand test tends to favour the status quo.
For example, if the London trade had been lightly regulated then I'm quite sure there would be taxis dotted around areas like Walthamstow, and there would be ranks and plenty of opportunity for the public to hail taxis.
Looking at it another way, I'm fairly sure that there are some yellow badge areas without any taxis at all, in which case since there's no supply there's no demand, and therefore can be no unmet demand?
But why's there no taxis in these areas - well, presumably it's because even the yellow badge and the PB requirement are sufficiently restrictive to stifle numbers completely.
From a provincial perspective, the numbers I posted in another thread recently are perhaps instructive:
Slough 108,000 HC 66 PH 712
Reading 145,000 HC 138 PH 400
Dundee 150,000 HC 507 PH 130
Swindon 177,000 HC 138 PH 468
Dundee is clearly the odd man out here - probably because they de-limited numbers there fairly recently, and since it's easy to run a taxi there and get a badge, there's little point in running a PH.
But the 507 taxis in Dundee are deemed to meet the unmet demand test, so why do the other similarly sized locations demonstrate such small taxi numbers and still meet the unmet demand test - probably because the work that the taxis can't/won't do is done by PH instead, and as far as ranks and hailing is concerned the taxis in these places 'cherry pick' where they want to work, and where people who might hire a taxi in Dundee they have no option but to phone PH in the other three locations.
Then there's the point about the fact that unmet demand can be manipulated by other means. For example, if TfL implemented such a test, and no unmet demand was found, but it was in the future, then this could be eliminated by raising fares sufficiently to stifle demand. Of course this would be in the interests of the current green badges, but would it be in the interests of the successful Knowledge boys or the general public?
By the same token, if unmet demand is manifested in future, and there ere no 'spare' knowledge boys available then would it be appropriate for TfL to water down the knowlege test, or is the unmet demand test only relevant when those who want it deem it necessary?
In this vein, T3 was introduced to alleviate unmet demand at night, and as well as encouraging drivers to change their shifts in the short term, it was inevitable that in the longer term there would be a higher number of drivers. So to that extent is it fair that the then cabbies got the short term benefit from T3, but not the longer term detriment?
Taking the unmet demand test to its ultimate conclusion, the London black cab trade would be about the only economic sector not to suffer the consequences of recession - no job losses and no drop in income either.
My point is that considering the various interests involved and the somewhat cack-handed nature of the test I think it's unlikely that an unmet demand test will be introduced in London, particularly with the OFT due to report this week(?)
Indeed, with many regarding the KOL as over-restrictive generally, it will be interesting to hear what the OFT have to say about it, but I suspect that they would view an additional arbitrary element to the issue of green badges with some horror, even assuming that the KOL remains unscathed.
Please note that the above is not intended to be a judgement on the various issues and interests involved, but an objective analysis of the way I see things going.
Dusty