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 Post subject: Deal or No Deal
PostPosted: Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:47 am 
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A number of threads have posts on the Deal/No Deal issue, so I've started one dealing just with that.

Sky's political correspondent Lewis Goodall gives a very good opinion article today.

https://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-no ... e-11779078

Sky Views: No dealers are winning because they want it more

The former NBA player Michael Jordan is an unlikely talisman for British politics. Nonetheless, a dictum of his, designed for sporting life, seems strangely apposite in explaining the curious tale of how Britain is on the verge of a no-deal Brexit.

Jordan said of the difference between success and failure in sport: "Some people want it to happen. Some wish it to happen. Others make it happen."

As so often, there are parallels between sporting and political life. The reason we might have a no-deal Brexit in Britain is because its advocates want it more than their enemies want to stop it. They are making it happen whilst their opponents spend their time only wishing it would stop.

Consider this: we now have a prime minister and a government, buttressed by a not inconsiderable rump of the Conservative party, who have made it clear that there is not a convention they are not willing to break, an institution they are not willing to smash, a precedent they are not willing to burn, in the pursuit of their goal.

The PM and his coterie have said that they would prorogue parliament because it might stand in their way; that they are willing to schedule an election far in excess of the usual time limits because it would ensure our exit on the 31 October. In so doing they would therefore go against yet more precedent in pursuing a highly tendentious policy during an election period (where normally a caretaker administration would do little of controversy). And now, we have news that the prime minister would squat in Number 10 after he loses a confidence vote in the House of Commons.

He is even willing to do so, apparently, if the Commons coalesces around an alternative prime minister, despite the fact the Cabinet Manual (the closest we have to a constitution) makes it clear that this is quite unacceptable and that it would risk the neutrality of the Queen. All of this would be constitutional vandalism.

Brexit then, "whatever the cost", as Dominic Cummings has said. It is a nihilistic vision of politics and indeed, a most unusual one for self-described "Conservatives" but it is, relentless and clear-sighted. Indeed, its recklessness has imbued this administration with a strange purpose and energy.

The path to a no-deal Brexit was always a narrow one but it is one its proponents are navigating successfully because they are united, there's nothing they are unwilling to do in the name of their prize. Meanwhile, because of their opponents indecision, the paths to stopping no deal, once wide and plentiful, have narrowed and reduced. Now perhaps only two remain.

The first is the sort of legislative manoeuvrings as we saw under Theresa May's premiership; something along the lines of the Letwin-Cooper bill, a fast-tracked piece of legislation which compels the prime minister to seek an extension if no deal can be agreed. That too required a fair bit of constitutional chicanery and even more will be needed if it is to take effect in time this time around.

If that fails, and there are many ways it could, the only other option will be a motion of no confidence. Even if that hurdle is surpassed, in order for Johnson not to run out the clock and call an election after the 14 day time cooling off period has elapsed, then those against no-deal would have to coalesce around an alternative prime minister and communicate to the Palace their willingness to install that person.

This is where the problems become most acute. Because in order to do that and guarantee no deal is off the table for longer, no-deal opponents would have to relegate every other political interest and impulse - party, faction, personal and political and unite in pursuit of that goal. As yet there is as yet no sign of it.

The opponents of no deal are encumbered in that they have other priorities: the Labour Party above all wishes to get into government and has no greater loyalty than to itself. Many of its MPs whilst aghast at the prospect of leaving the bloc with no agreement believe their loyalty still ultimately rests with party. Though some would be willing to act independently, most of them will likely not countenance what they need to do to stop no deal, unless authorised by their leadership.

It is possible that they might be able to persuade Jeremy Corbyn to temporarily step aside but that will be up to him and it seems unlikely he will be willing to give up power for a Conservative backbencher, or worse see a Labour backbench rival into Number 10. For Labour then, the key grouping to stopping no deal, tribalism will still come first.

Then there are scores of Conservatives who are distinctly queasy about the potential economic tumult of no deal. But what ranks higher in their hierarchy of priorities - averting it, or keeping Jeremy Corbyn out of Number 10?

When it comes to the crunch, they may find those two things are inseparable but most will probably baulk at the choice.

But is there any doubt, if the situations were reversed, that the no-dealers would act with such prevarication? That they would sublimate every other interest to secure what they wanted? They wouldn't think twice. Not least because they have also decided, rightly or wrongly that their political interests - the prosperity of the Conservative party - and delivering no deal are perfectly aligned.

There is no such happy fusion for its opponents, where a thousand political impulses pull them in a thousand directions. Fragmentation reigns.

All of this, despite the fact that the mandate for a no-deal Brexit is negligible at best. And that alludes to something else the no-dealers have over their remain counterparts. They're just better at politics. They have successfully legitimised a no-deal Brexit as the only Brexit which can be.

Brexiters set up a new party which transformed the political landscape and nudged everything in a no-deal direction at the point of maximum uncertainty for their project. They have commandeered the public discourse, at a time when remainers still just talk to themselves, happy in their own righteousness and retweets.

No-dealers' victory is evidenced in the ubiquity of the term itself and in its usage, one of defiance, of exertion of power, of a reclamation of national pride. The fact that remainers are still using it, rather than a moniker of their own making: a Somalia Brexit, a depression Brexit, or such like, tells you all that you need to know.

And so in tactics, strategy and clarity of purpose, three years on, the Brexiters are once again winning hands down.

There has been so much discussion in recent days about whether or not a Johnson administration, hell bent on no deal, can be stopped. Let me save all of you the bother. It can. Of course it can. If those against no-deal were willing to strain every sinew, break every party bond, abandon all other political interest and jettison precedent, they could.

They have the power, it is up to them. In other words: they would need to behave as their opponents do.

As Michael Jordan would say, they have to make it happen- not just wish it. It may be the cardinal insight of Boris Johnson and his much vaunted Rasputin, Dominic Cummings, that they will not.

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 Post subject: Re: Deal or No Deal
PostPosted: Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:58 am 
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Robert Preston also commented on how tough it would be, if not near impossible, for parliament to undertake what would be required to stop no deal.

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-08-06/why ... rt-peston/

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 Post subject: Re: Deal or No Deal
PostPosted: Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:18 pm 
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I got to listen to a few commentators on 5 live this morning on my way to LHR and it was pointed out that after all the "we can't have a no deal Brexit" votes and rhetoric prior to Bojo the clown coming to power the EU think he is bluffing

Add to that we are not going to impose any tariff's on the EU under WTO rules but they are on us

Why are our politicians so stupid and thick so British exports penalised EU imports not no wonder the EU isn't interested in the negotiating table they are getting everything they want

free movement of goods into the UK without any reciprocity :roll:

They need to issue a new Tariff sheet that selectively hurts certain EU industries

At the moment we are like Eddie the eagle trying to take on Mike Tyson

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 Post subject: Re: Deal or No Deal
PostPosted: Sat Aug 10, 2019 12:09 am 
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edders23 wrote:

At the moment we are like Eddie the eagle trying to take on Mike Tyson

That would depend on what he took him on at. Just how good is Mike Tyson at skiing or ski jumping?

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 Post subject: Re: Deal or No Deal
PostPosted: Sat Aug 10, 2019 6:18 am 
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BOXING !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I just cannot believe we have guaranteed EU ZERO import Tariff's whilst they are going to impose Import tariff's on us

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 Post subject: Re: Deal or No Deal
PostPosted: Sat Aug 10, 2019 1:25 pm 
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edders23 wrote:
BOXING !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I just cannot believe we have guaranteed EU ZERO import Tariff's whilst they are going to impose Import tariff's on us

I think that's a negotiating ploy.

Nothing stopping us changing our policy come November 1st.

At the moment we look like the good hard done boys. :wink:

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 Post subject: Re: Deal or No Deal
PostPosted: Sat Aug 10, 2019 4:03 pm 
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Nothing stopping us changing our policy come November 1st.


there is a notice period under WTO rules unless you are only changing one or two I believe

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 Post subject: Re: Deal or No Deal
PostPosted: Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:48 pm 
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Out for sure with no deal and then chaos and a General Election which Corbyn will walk .....................well done the Torie vermin Bojo the Etonian ponce will hand it over to CORBYN :D :D :D :D :D :D

ALL TORIES ARE SCUM :badgrin: :badgrin: :badgrin:Especially those in the Labour Party Watson Harman Kinnock Lammy Abbot the last 2 are of course racists :evil: :evil:

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