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Scottish independence?
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Author:  grandad [ Sun Dec 15, 2019 12:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Scottish independence?
What do you all thing about Scottish independence?
Should we say no or should we say OK get on with it?
Author:  edders23 [ Sun Dec 15, 2019 7:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Scottish independence?
It does appear that the majority want it BUT I suspect that it is a similar thing to our brexit vote they all think they will be quids in because they will have much more money coming in in tax revenues

As a much smaller country the EU will see them as easy prey and I suspect an independent Scotland will be milked by the EU for it's oil and fishing rights and as somewhere to use to solve the migrant crisis

If they have another referendum I am certain they will vote for independence but they may well live to regret it because they haven't thought it through

They will undoubtedly get more tax revenues from oil and gas which in this day and age is a declining business as the world lurches towards carbon free energy and then they will have to fund a Scottish Army, Air force and navy as well as fisheries protection and customs and border forces.

The EU may insist on them applying for EU membership which could be a long and costly process. In addition there will be a lot of issues to resolve around transport links which have always been integrated

Scotland would be better off in the union but I think that is a lesson they want to learn the hard way
Author:  StuartW [ Sun Dec 15, 2019 8:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Scottish independence?
edders23 wrote:
It does appear that the majority want it BUT I suspect that it is a similar thing to our brexit vote they all think they will be quids in because they will have much more money coming in in tax revenues

Where's the evidence that a 'majority want independence'?

About 45% voted in favour in the 2014 referendum. About the same %age as voted for pro-independence parties on Thursday (the SNP and Greens).

Sturgeon and the SNP downplayed independence during the election campaign and made it more about stopping Brexit :lol:

Now they're claiming Thursday's vote gave them a mandate for another referendum on independence :roll:

Image

I'm pretty sure Sturgeon doesn't actually want an independence referendum at the moment, because she knows it can't be won. But she also knows Boris won't allow one, so she pretends she wants one just to keep stirring things up and create division.

A lot of the hardcore Scottish nationalists have now come to the same conclusion, and are effectively accusing Sturgeon of treachery.

As for the public finances, Scotland currently subsidised by England, effectively. In particular, North Sea oil revenues have more or less disappeared, and they won't be coming back.



Nicola Sturgeon drops call for second Scottish independence vote because she knows voters hate it

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10518284/ ... op-brexit/

NICOLA Sturgeon has stopped mentioning a second Scottish independence vote — because the plan bombs with voters.

The SNP leader has switched her message to halting Brexit in a last-ditch bid to woo Remainers.
Author:  Sussex [ Sun Dec 15, 2019 9:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Scottish independence?
grandad wrote:
What do you all thing about Scottish independence?
Should we say no or should we say OK get on with it?

We had a 'once in a lifetime' referendum a few years back.

Recent opinion polls indicate the view then is more or less the view now.

So I say no vote now. Maybe in 10 years when we are out of the EU and then Scotland can decide if they really want the Euro and to be a very very very small fish in the EU.

The SNP need to concentrate on Scotland's domestic problems first.
Author:  StuartW [ Mon Dec 16, 2019 12:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Scottish independence?
Sussex wrote:
The SNP need to concentrate on Scotland's domestic problems first.

Indeed, and that's one reason they constantly blame Westminster and bang the independence drum - it shifts attention from their domestic performance on things like this:

Image


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Anyway, all last week's stuff will soon be forgotten about over Christmas, and it's the Alex Salmond trial in the new year.

Who knows what impact that will have on the opinion polls, if any.

But there's a lot of talk about Sturgeon coming out of the trial badly, and many claiming it will even finish her.

Suspect that's a bit hyped up, but the whole story can't be told at this time because it's sub judice.

But what's pretty clear is that another independence referendum won't be happening any time soon.

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Author:  bloodnock [ Mon Dec 16, 2019 1:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Scottish independence?
Don't believe all the SNP hype, there were far fewer scots that voted for the SNP in this election than voted to remain in the UK just five years ago....the SNP simply picked up a lot of Remain voters and others who did not trust corbyn in the same way the Tories did in england.

This was not a mandate for Indyref 2 as the SNP pretends it to be, if they tried to foist an indyref 2 on us now it would backfire on the SNP big time.
Author:  jimbo [ Mon Dec 16, 2019 5:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Scottish independence?
bloodnock wrote:
Don't believe all the SNP hype, there were far fewer scots that voted for the SNP in this election than voted to remain in the UK just five years ago....the SNP simply picked up a lot of Remain voters and others who did not trust corbyn in the same way the Tories did in england.

This was not a mandate for Indyref 2 as the SNP pretends it to be, if they tried to foist an indyref 2 on us now it would backfire on the SNP big time.



The only reason the snp are demanding another referendum is because the prime minister will refuse to countenance one. The last thing they want is another referendum which they would lose.
Author:  edders23 [ Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Scottish independence?
To be fair a second referendum would be undemocratic as they are asking people to vote again because they didn't get the "right" result the first time.

The SNP should have honoured the first result but if Scotland doesn't want independence why do they keep voting SNP ?
Author:  MR T [ Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Scottish independence?
edders23 wrote:
To be fair a second referendum would be undemocratic as they are asking people to vote again because they didn't get the "right" result the first time.

The SNP should have honoured the first result but if Scotland doesn't want independence why do they keep voting SNP ?

Best of a bad bunch.
Author:  Sussex [ Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Scottish independence?
Quote:
The SNP should have honoured the first result but if Scotland doesn't want independence why do they keep voting SNP ?

Actually an interesting question which maybe one of the Scottish lads could elaborate on.

Maybe its more of an anti Tory vote, as those SNP voters might believe that party will cause more grief than the others to the Tories.

The SNP got 45% of the vote, akin to the 45% the Tories got UK wide. So 55% of voters didn't support either.

I think it was mentioned above that the vote issue is one the SNP are using to deflect attention from domestic issues. Especially the issues around Mr Salmond.
Author:  StuartW [ Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Scottish independence?
edders23 wrote:
The SNP should have honoured the first result but if Scotland doesn't want independence why do they keep voting SNP ?


Difference between the voting systems in general elections and referendums, basically.

In standard elections the winning party generally doesn't get much more than 40% of the vote. The Tories got 44% last week, which is high for a UK general election, as I recall it.

The SNP got slightly more of the vote share in Scotland - 45%. Again very high, and the opposition vote is obviously split between the other two main parties in England, or three parties in Scotland. But that's why even with 40% or so of the votes the winning party can still win a majority of the seats - 56% for the Tories last week. In Scotland the system skews the result even more - the SNP got 81% of the seats on a *minority* of the votes.

(In the USA the results can be even more distorted because of the electoral college system - didn't Clinton actually win more votes than Trump?)

Of course, the difference in referendums is that you need 50% of the votes to win, therefore...

So no doubt the SNP popular, but in terms of seats the numbers make them look more popular than they are in reality, but that's the way the UK system works.

But they're not quite popular enough to get past 50% in a referendum. They got 45% last time round in 2014, which is the same as they got in last week's election.

And the opinion polls normally show roughly that level of support, so despite all the huffing and puffing in the last few days, nothing much has changed.

In fact I think in the past Sturgeon has said that the polls would have to be around 60% in favour for them to go again, because once the hard questions are asked during a campaign (about currency, taxation, the public finances etc) they'd probably lose support.

So in reality I suspect they *don't* really want to go again any time soon, because they know that if they lost again that really would be it for decades (as happened in Canada's Quebec).

But in the meantime it suits the SNP's purpose to pretend that they want an early referendum, and that it's only big bad Boris and Westminster that's standing in the way.
Author:  Nidge2 [ Thu Dec 19, 2019 6:56 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Scottish independence?
Sturgeon blames everything on Westminster, she's racist and she's leading the people of Scotland into a mess. When the truth comes out about her and Salmond they will be finished.

As for another referendum vote, the answer is "NO." You've had one that is it for another 10-15 years.

What currency will she use? What will she do when the money from Westminster stops?

As for the oil money, it's not Scotlands oil, the oil fields are 100 miles out from Scotland. Just because the refineries are in Scotland it's not Scotlands oil.
Author:  edders23 [ Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Scottish independence?
there's only one chinese owned refinery in Scotland the rest are in England and wales
Author:  Sussex [ Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Scottish independence?
It was mentioned in the House of Commons, so it must be correct, that during the recent General Election SNP activists were telling voters that the election wasn't about Independence, it was about Brexit.

Clearly the SNP aren't as trustworthy as they would like us to believe.
Author:  edders23 [ Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Scottish independence?
deep down the SNP want Brexit because then they can promise the people of Scotland that they will rejoin the EU as an independent nation
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