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PostPosted: Sat Feb 26, 2005 8:30 pm 
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Empirically, this phenomenon can be examined by comparing taxi numbers in London and New York. Most conventional analyses would compare the 20,000 or so taxis in London with the 12,000 or so in New York. However, while there are around 24,000 London drivers, numbers in New York are significantly higher at 40,000 – while each London taxi is driven by just over one driver on average, over three are packed into each New York taxi.

In the purely domestic context the effect can be further demonstrated by comparing the driver/vehicle ratio in London, where drivers can choose to operate their own vehicle, with several of the more high profile restricted areas in the UK, together with one or two other locations:


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I dont honestly believe the document is doing itself any favours by referring to a comparison between New York and London. The T&G have made similar references to the taxi wars in Atalanta, Georgia and have been rightfully castigated for doing so.


Well I'm not sure who has castigated the T&G in this regard, but the overseas comparisons are often refer to the removal of price and quality controls, ie proper deregulation, so the comparisons are not like with like.

Vague talk about taxi wars doesn't exactly enlighten the debate. For example, what are they referring to? Price wars? The newspapers here are full of stuff about price wars between Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury et al, but there's not exactly blood on the streets.

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It is generally well known that New York is a heavily congested city, surely the reasons that taxi numbers are not similar to London are for the reasons of the congestion and not as suggested by the document.

Indeed, an additional argument could be that vehicles in New York are better managed than in London, given the congestion in our capital, New York maybe an ideal example to follow :wink


Err, the document is claiming that there are MORE taxis on the streets in New York, despite the misleading stats.

For example, if on average half of drivers are working at any point in time then there will be 12,000 on the streets of London, but 20,000 on the streets of NY, so more congestion there :D

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 26, 2005 8:33 pm 
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captain cab wrote:
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Taxi/PH substitutability

The other primary numerical consequence of restricting taxi numbers is to fuel growth in the PHV sector, which cannot be numerically controlled. Although the latter cannot ply for hire on the streets in the manner of taxis, they can pick up passengers who have pre-booked (primarily by telephone). Of course, taxis can operate via both methods of securing custom, but many confine themselves to the rank and hail markets. Thus if two otherwise identical locations are considered, it might be expected that if one restricted taxi numbers then it would have more PHVs than the other.


While a number of Hackney Carriages limit themselves to the rank and hail market, I would suggest that more hackneys use radio circuits than those that dont.

The effects of delimitation of hackneys upon the services of private hire have been neglected in the document, although I realise this will be pointed out if its in there. :wink:


The document does point out that since hacks can serve both markets then this 'supply-side substitutability', as the OFT put it at the Trans Comm meeting, makes for a better and more efficent service.

In short, a PH can serve only on market, a HC can do both.

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 26, 2005 8:35 pm 
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captain cab wrote:
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3 ECONOMIC AND OTHER EFFECTS

License premiums


The premium that a taxi license may attract is not an indication of an unmet demand for taxis by passengers. It is however an indication of a demand for taxi licenses. Both are seperate things, often confused.

The demand for taxi licenses is not within the remit of a local authority, a local authoritys remit is the demand of passengers.


I agree Cap, but I can't see the relevance of this as regards M&R, so it seems a bit out of context.

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 26, 2005 8:39 pm 
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captain cab wrote:
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Who gains from restricting taxi numbers?


The first part refers to the North American experience, while the T&G may find it a nice smokescreen to use, I personally cannot see the relevence, the document does do well in this respect to effectively point this out.
[/quote]

Are you saying that the T&G use the North American experience as a smokescreen?

What is it that you can't see the relevance of Cap?

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 26, 2005 8:41 pm 
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I dont know how my following remark will be taken, so please dont take it the wrong way, I am trying to be constructive. Indeed, as you will be aware, I am basically the only person who has questioned it to some degree.

The document is good, there is no denying it, I am merely pointing out what I see as problem areas. I am obviously confused by some of the points, it would follow if i am confused, knowing a little about the trade, then what would a layman think?

I understand your points regarding the total number of licensed vehicles not effectively changing, therefore in theory, with the same number of vehicles and drivers, and not forgetting the same number of passengers, the theory is that nothing has changed. Indeed I also subscribe to this opinion.

Human nature however is another equasion, and equasion that cannot be taken into account in the document, because nobody actually knows accurately what will occur when everyone who wants to play cabbie, is one.

All I can offer you is a view that people will work when it suits them, rather than when it suits the passenger. The balance between private hire and hackney will shift towards a greater number of hackney carriages. Therefore leading to less private hire and less private hire operator control. Therefore leading to less coverage during envisioned quieter periods, and a worse service when ranks are busy ( the I didnt but a hackney to work the radio all night scenario)

Once there is less private hire vehicles, you leave the customer with less choice of vehicles, as fares as regulated it follows that fares are not necessarily cheaper with private hire than hackney, which is currently the case.

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 26, 2005 8:48 pm 
Ever get the feeling your still talking to 0.F.T. I bet they are still well upset at the hiding they got from the trade........mr T 8) 8) :lol: :lol:


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 26, 2005 8:48 pm 
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Taxi plates in the UK


Quote:
I do not wish to pick fault with the document, should this section not read "taxi plates in areas that restrict licenses"?


The document is about restricted numbers, so in that context I don't think the heading is misleading, as a reading of the text should make clear.

Quote:
there is nothing to suggest that limiting the number of taxi licenses benefits anyone other than plate holders, and even among plate holders the gains are not evenly distributed.


Quote:
However, there is nothing to suggest that the public are worse off due to limitation of numbers. As previously stated, if a local authority believe that there is an unmet demand, it is obliged to increase taxi numbers accordingly.


Well the plate premiums don't come out of thin air, someone is paying for them at the end of the day.

As for the demand point, there may still be unmet demand even if any plates demanded by a survey have been issued. The crucial word is significant. For example, late nights aren't even considered AFAIK.

Quote:
For example, taxi plates in Liverpool have been limited for around a decade, according to the OFT report. Clearly, plate holding taxi drivers are earning more than they would if numbers were not restricted – these ‘excess profits’ are represented by the £30,000 plate premium, and those who have held plates since numbers were restricted paid no premium when they were issued.


Quote:
There is a contridiction here, it was staed earlier in the document that more taxis will merely lead to more taxis (coming over from private hire), the end result in being exactly the same number of licensed vehicles and an equal amount of work.

Therefore how can it be the case that drivers are actually earning more in restricted areas?


Because they have a monopoly over access to the rank and hail market.

Quote:
As for the point regarding those who have held plates since numbers were restricted paying no premium...... the point is?


The discussion is in the context of who is gaining from restricted numbers. The point is that, unlike those who have paid for a plate and therefore the whole premium doesn't represent unearned gains, in the case of those awarded a plate for jack, it does!

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 26, 2005 8:48 pm 
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hehe,

my point reagrding your point, regarding the T&G's points towards North America.

I dont think it should have been in their document or this one, we agree on the smokescreen. :shock:



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Well I'm not sure who has castigated the T&G in this regard


It was me actually :wink:

hehe

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 26, 2005 8:59 pm 
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Well the plate premiums don't come out of thin air, someone is paying for them at the end of the day.

As for the demand point, there may still be unmet demand even if any plates demanded by a survey have been issued. The crucial word is significant. For example, late nights aren't even considered AFAIK.


I dont necessarily disagree, however, the inference is that a plate value is indicative of an unmet demand, an unmet demand survey is the gauge and the only gauge a local authority should use to limit numbers.

Concerning late nights it is generally accepted, and must surely be accepted by yourself too that if every licensed vehicle is at work and freely able to ply for hire, demand would still outstrip supply.

Need I point out the bank scenario? :wink:

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 26, 2005 9:03 pm 
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Journeyman drivers

The above analysis obviously ignores the position of journeymen drivers – those drivers who do not own the taxi they drive, and are obviously in a similar position to the bulk of the New York drivers. But the position of the UK journeymen is no different – they effectively pay for the use of the plate, but this is not done quite as transparently as in New York – the plate rental is normally part of artificially inflated payments made to use the taxi.


Quote:
A jouneyman driver has the opportunity to purchase his own plate from someone leaving the trade. This is not indicative of an unmet demand for taxis, just plates as previously stated.


I don't quite get the point here Cap - the point being made is that the medallion rentals in NY show quite clearly where the money paid by the jockey is going, whereas in the UK it's not quite so clear.

It was clear enough in Dundee for example, since the plates were being rented for a fixed sum, but in the more general case in the UK, such as in Brighton, where the plate AND car is being rented, it's not so clear.

Quote:
the plate rental is normally part of artificially inflated payments made to use the taxi.


Quote:
Whilst I am no fan of artificially high vehicle rentals it would seem that what is needed is a comparision between restricted and derestricted areas for this statement to be correct (although if there is one elsewhere in the document I need to apologise :wink: )


Even the Inland Revenue don't know that :lol:

As I said, there's a black market in restricted plates in some areas of the UK, so where the plate per se is being leased, it's pretty obvious.

As regards the more general case, it's plain that if someone buys a plate then they'll expect higher rentals based on the value of the premium.

I asked about the price of renting an Octavia in Brighton the other night for example, but reply was there none.

Quote:
This position is best demonstrated by considering a fleet owner who buys a taxi for £20,000 in a restricted area as compared to a fleet owner who buys a similar vehicle in an unrestricted area. Both intend renting the vehicle to journeymen drivers. If the former taxi is to be rented out in Manchester (say) then the purchaser will also need a plate at an artificially inflated value, and if this costs £45,000 then obviously the total investment will be £65,000 rather than the £20,000 in the unrestricted area.


Quote:
An anecdotal scenario.

In my experience it is normally the case that a fleet owner will rent out a vehicle where the finance agreement has elapsed, thus maximising the income from the vehicle.

Again I will point out a contradiction in the document, as it was earlier implied that after delimitation virtually all vehicles are owner driven.


Well I could hardly list every vehicle and premium in the UK, I was just trying to illustrate the principle - you can put your own figures in and see what comes up :D

I don't see the relevance of the point about the finance agreement, it's the economic effects of the plate premiums that are being considered.

As for your last point, please don't tell GA, but again this is not relevant to the principle being described.

There are clearly non-driving owners in London (say) but the point is the excess rentals being paid in restricted areas. Remeber that GBC expressed surprise at Edinburgh rentals for example, but the reason for them was the restricted numbers.

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 26, 2005 9:06 pm 
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MR T wrote:
Ever get the feeling your still talking to 0.F.T. I bet they are still well upset at the hiding they got from the trade........mr T 8) 8) :lol: :lol:

I'm not so sure they did, but I bet they will be back in a year or so's time.

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 26, 2005 9:07 pm 
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captain cab wrote:
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Thus the holier-than-thou bleatings from trade representative groups about restricting taxi numbers to protect the earnings of ‘drivers’ should be qualified significantly – what they really mean is protecting the normally minority vested interest group that hold plates, whether or not they actually drive a taxi. Of course, many journeymen drivers also support restricted numbers on the basis that it protects their earnings, but it would be interesting to hear how this comes about. Many certainly do not seem aware that they are paying well over the odds to rent vehicles in restricted areas.


As you will gather from my previous posts, I have my misgivings about the T&G, indeed, the document highlights their inconsistency.

However, it is unfair to presume what the T&G or any trade body actually mean.

In general taxi owners are not as scientific as suggested in the document.


They don't have to be scientific - it's all done by the workings of the market, which they don't have to be intimate with - it's what Adam Smith called the 'invisible hand' that guides people to consider their own self-interes and act accordingly - they don't have to be scientific about it.

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 26, 2005 9:11 pm 
TDO wrote:
It was clear enough in Dundee for example, since the plates were being rented for a fixed sum, but in the more general case in the UK, such as in Brighton, where the plate AND car is being rented, it's not so clear.

About £250-300 a week without radio for sole useage.
Or if two drivers share car £250 each (£500) a week with radio.


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 26, 2005 9:13 pm 
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captain cab wrote:

You know exactly what I mean :wink: , how can the local trade have a legal agreement with a local authority to limit taxi numbers to a set figure when section 16 is worded as it is.

A local authority decides taxi numbers not taxi drivers.



I didn't say that the number was agreed on, just that there's an agreement to restrict numbers!

Section 16 just sets limits on the LAs discretion, but it doesn't change the fact that the 'trade' and the LA are agreeing to restrict numbers.

And there's not anything illegal about it, hence the inclusion of the word..err...legal :D

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 26, 2005 9:14 pm 
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Cgull wrote:
TDO wrote:
It was clear enough in Dundee for example, since the plates were being rented for a fixed sum, but in the more general case in the UK, such as in Brighton, where the plate AND car is being rented, it's not so clear.

About £250-300 a week without radio for sole useage.
Or if two drivers share car £250 each (£500) a week with radio.


And we agreed that a saloon would cost not much more than a ton to rent ex-radio.

No excess profits in Brighton then :lol:

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