Inclined to agree with both Sussex and Jozef.
I mean, an 800 strong HC circuit like Glasgow Taxis Limited (and with probably twice that in terms of badge numbers) is bound to have some people who have something to hide from HMRC.
But to a degree these things have always been pot luck, and they won't investigate absolutely everyone all of the time. So it's targetted, based on rescources and risk etc.
After all, if a few at GTL were assessed for £35k in back payments, and there's the likes of the chap in Brighton, then obviously they'd been getting away with it for some time, so what's to say they couldn't have continued like that if HMRC hadn't decided to target them, as Sussex's pal might have done for years to come if they hadn't introduced this tax check.
But resources will always be limited, particularly now with SEISS fraud and the like to deal with, so it seems unlikely that HMRC will investigate each and every discrepancy thrown up by the new checks.
And I suspect the majority of basket cases simply won't reapply for a badge when they realise what's entailed, so will probably never come to HMRC's attention anyway.
That said, it'll definitely be a game-changer, but I suspect more in terms of the drivers with something big to hide disappearing, and new drivers to be less likely to be working 'on the side'.
Not sure it's the same everywhere, but from what I know of the trade here I'd guess it's drivers with other jobs and income who'll disappear. They've maybe gotten away with it because their main income is from a PAYE job, or another self-employment business, say.
But it won't be so easy for them now, and I suspect many will simply not take the risk.
Ditto dormant badges. Of course, there are lots of legitimately held badges which aren't worked, as Mr T says. But suspect they too will be more inclined not to renew, just in case HMRC comes calling, and is all over them like a rash
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