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How the EU Got the Irish to 'Yes'
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Text .By ANNE JOLIS
DUBLIN—Ladbrokes in downtown Dublin was paying one to 33 that Irish voters would approve Europe's Lisbon Treaty, against eight to one that they would strike it down. For non-gamblers, that means the betting chain thought the EU charter was a favorite to win—by a lot.
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Barbara Kelley
.Two doors down, patrons of the Sackville Lounge turned away from televised horse races to reveal why. After Irish voters spurned the treaty in a referendum last year, the European Commission—the EU's unelected legislative, regulatory and executive branch whose power would be cemented under the treaty—left little to chance this time around. Here is how Brussels did it:
1. Don't let a good crisis go to waste: Playing to voter apathy backfired in Ireland last year, but in the fall of 2009 a much more powerful tool presented itself for the Commission and its Dublin backers: fear. Specifically, fear of economic isolation.
An Irish Times reporter asked Commission President José Manuel Barroso at a victory press conference on Saturday about allegations of fear mongering. Mr. Barroso was all innocence: "Scare tactics? I don't know what you mean by that."
Perhaps Mr. Barroso forgot the interview he gave to the Irish Times two weeks ago, where he seemed concerned that "some people"—still unnamed—had asked him whether Ireland would leave the EU, adding that "For investor confidence, it is important that there is certainty about the future of Ireland in the EU." So while Mr. Barroso knew Ireland could reject Lisbon without risking full EU and euro membership, he calculated that in an era of 12.6% Irish unemployment, stoking nerves over capital flight would have a big impact.
That message was clear enough to Ruairí Brennan, a 24-year-old student who explained his Yes vote to me over ale at the Sackville. "We have no money, that's what it comes down to," he said. "If we go against them, they'll go against us."
He produced a pamphlet from Ireland For Europe, a coalition of Yes-ite business and civic leaders. The leaflet states that the EU has invested more than €70 billion in Ireland. Mr. Barroso gave the Irish a well-timed reminder of such largesse last month, when he announced €14.8 million to help laid-off Irish workers. It's true that Ireland received €566 million more from EU coffers last year than it contributed, but this difference accounted for only 0.36% of Ireland's gross national income, by the Commission's own figures—hardly the lynchpin of the health and wealth of the Celtic Tiger.
The pamphlet also echoes the Yes campaign's claim that approval of the treaty will mean jobs. But Lisbon's promise that a reformed EU will be "aiming at full employment" is no guarantee that Mr. Brennan will graduate to a host of job offers. The best hope for that happy prospect is, rather, his own hard work and Ireland's own pro-growth tax policies—which Lisbon could give other EU countries the power to thwart. No question, the monetary discipline that came with Ireland's adoption of the euro will also brighten Mr. Brennan's future, but contrary to Mr. Barroso's insinuations, Mr. Brennan would not have been risking this had he voted No.
2. Activate the herd mentality: Alongside the economic threats, Irish voters were subjected to the even more vague minacity that Ireland would somehow be shunned by the rest of the bloc. After the Republic rejected the treaty last year, Brussels mandarins ignited the rumor that a two-tier Europe could be the solution. Though such isolation within the EU is impossible, the rumors stuck, cemented by Yes campaign posters telling voters to say "Yes to Europe," rather than to the 294-page document on offer.
"We wouldn't have the same authority, we'd be out on the fringes," said Hugh McGinn, a teetotaling taxi driver, when asked what arguments had most swayed his Yes vote.
Such arguments are incorrect, but one can forgive Mr. McGinn for believing them. The official "Statement for the Information of Voters," prescribed by Ireland's Oireachtas (or Parliament) and distributed to voters and posted at polling stations, opened by saying a Yes vote would "(a) affirm Ireland's commitment to the European Union" and "(b) enable Ireland to ratify the Treaty of Lisbon and to be a member of the European Union established by that Treaty."
So much for informed democracy. Ireland's "commitment" to the existing EU was not up for a vote, and without Irish ratification there would have been no reformed EU for Ireland to be, or not be, a member of.
But the contrary point was central to the peer pressure targeting Ireland: That if Ireland voted no, it would spoil reforms for the rest of Europe's 500 million citizens, as if they too had been given a say in the matter (they hadn't). This awkward position of serving as proxies for democracy for half a billion people weighed on the minds of Irish voters. At the Sackville, 19-year-old student Shane Gaynor asserted that his Yes vote was as much for Europe as for Ireland. "After all Europe has given us, it's time to give something back," he said.
Lauren Bacon, also a student and also 19, saw it differently. "We're the only country that even got a vote on this. We shouldn't throw away what other countries didn't even have."
3. Move the finish line: Perhaps the single greatest factor determining the outcome of Friday's referendum was that it was held at all. Democracy means adhering to the will of the majority of the day. Do-overs and give-backs not only mock the voting process, they convince many that going to the polls is an exercise in futility. This was the case for many, who told me they had voted against the treaty last year but hadn't bothered on Friday.
"I'm not voting, I voted No last time," said Shane Masterson, a 22-year-old builder outside the Sackville. "I wasted dear, valuable time waiting in line, and they threw it away. They're going to keep asking until they get their way, so what's the point? We chose to speak and they chose to ignore." They won't now of course—Brussels has the answer it wants.
There remains some hope for those who believe Europe deserves a better treaty. Senators in the Czech Republic, where President Vaclav Klaus has yet to sign the document, have filed an eleventh hour challenge to Lisbon in the country's Constitutional Court. Depending on how long the court takes to issue a verdict, the move could buy time for British Conservative leader David Cameron to make good on his promise, repeated on Saturday, that if his party wins general elections next year before the treaty is ratified by all EU countries, they will hold a British referendum.
If so, Mr. Cameron should take note of the tactics employed by Mr. Barroso & Co. As any Irish bookie would tell him, "democracy" in the hands of an unelected central bureaucracy is not a safe bet.
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Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
George Carlin
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