Taxi Driver Online

From TaxiPoint


Could a London taxi badge eventually be worth more than a New York taxi medallion when robo-taxis arrive?

https://www.taxi-point.co.uk/post/could ... o-taxis-ar

As the taxi industry tip-toes towards a new era of automation, there is growing speculation over the future value of traditional taxi licences. Whilst a London taxi badge currently holds no monetary value to the licensee, as fully automated cabs take hold of the trade in years ahead, could it surpass the iconic New York taxi medallion in value?

To operate a licensed taxi in London, drivers must earn their green badge by passing ‘The Knowledge’. This involves memorising thousands of routes and landmarks across the capital, a process that takes years to master. Candidates undergo a series of exams, proving they can efficiently navigate the city’s maze of streets. Upon successful completion, they are awarded a licence to operate a black cab, joining an elite group of drivers and effectively earning themselves a job for life.

Across the Atlantic, New York’s system is quite different. The right to operate a yellow taxi is tied to a medallion, which has historically been bought and sold on the open market. These medallions were once extremely valuable, peaking at over $1 million in the early 2000s. However, with the rise of ridesharing apps like Uber and Lyft, demand for medallions dropped sharply, and their value crashed.

With fully autonomous vehicles on the horizon, which may still be decades down the road, the taxi industry could face another major disruption. Robo-taxis, once fully operational, could make traditional manual driving redundant. As this shift occurs, authorities may limit the number of autonomous taxi licences to control congestion and prevent an oversupply of vehicles on the roads. An uncontrolled increase in robo-taxis would not only lead to congestion but also increase the demand for parking and vehicle maintenance infrastructure.

In this new era, drivers may still retain the right to renew a taxi licence, but this time operate it without them in the driving seat. It would effectively allow them to run a self-driving taxi service. The value of these licences would likely be tied to the potential earnings of a fully operational autonomous taxi, capable of working 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Some drivers might choose to hold onto their licences, generating a passive income from their autonomous fleet. Others may opt to sell the licence outright, much like the New York medallion system.

Although fully autonomous vehicles are still some years away, there is growing interest in the potential value of taxi licences in the future and how the switch from the current licensing regime will happen. For those considering leaving the industry, holding onto a licence could be a lucrative investment. While it's hard to predict when or how the shift will happen, retaining a taxi licence could prove to be a smart long-term financial decision.

The chances of a fully automated cab, or any vehicle for that matter, driving around central London are way way way less than zero.

It simply will never happen.

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IDFIMH

So for anyone who didn't catch on the article is actually more than six months old.

I remember thinking at the time that it was so far-fetched that the only way it could be given credence is if it had been published on 1 April, thus yesterday's post reproducing it on here

So it would have been quite a clever article if it had been published on 1 April, but unfortunately I think the piece was intended to be taken seriously

well this century at least

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lack of modern legislation is the iceberg sinking the titanic of the transport sector

Interestingly, just after I'd posted the article above, TaxiPoint published this, which surely underlines how pie-in-the-sky that piece published six months earlier was

Automated taxi permits to sit with Government ministers under new law, says Lord Hendy

https://www.taxi-point.co.uk/post/autom ... lord-hendy

Responsibility for issuing permits to taxi and private hire operators of automated passenger services will fall to national ministers under the Automated Vehicles Act 2024, according to a government minister.



Of course, maybe I'm totally wrong and somehow a badge issued to drive a vehicle will somehow mutate into the right to operate a vehicle, and that that would then transform into the right to operate an autonomous vehicle, and that there would be some sort of arbitrary limit on numbers, and that then the licence to operate such a vehicle would accrue an artificial value

Either that, or the whole article was total wishful thinking in the first place

(And, indeed, in what other context have I constantly been reading about badges and plates being confused and conflated in the last 30 years or so? )