Taxi Driver Online

Sorry, am still not convinced. I am not disputing any of your above quoted figures (especially the ones with all the naughts on the end ).

But you made a statement about customer numbers steadily declining without furnishing us with the figures.

I thought that overall customer numbers were increasing.

So what are the figures for total passenger journeys by taxi/PH five years ago in Edinburgh, versus the figures at present?

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The higher the fewer.

No one actually monitors the figures directly apart from your own books but what I can tell you is tariffs have increased by over 35% but Edinburgh cabby's now earn less pro rata than they did 5 years ago.

Now technically speaking earnings should be up 35% with the same customer base.

The only increases the trade has seen are drivers, their rentals, plate premiums and the Ph more than doubling over the same period.


This place is a nut house

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All animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others.
George Orwell, "Animal Farm"

I think the problem is that there are several factors which influence plate values, but it's difficult to extricate the various factors from each other.

But I think the main factor is the overall trend in demand for taxis, which has been increasing for decades.

So if the number of taxis in a city increases by 50% in twenty years, but demand increases by 150%, then each taxis income will self-evidently increase, thus feeding through to plate values.

Of course, some of the increased demand may be satisified by growth in the private hire market, in effect filling a gap left by stagnant taxi supply, but on the other hand even assuming a static market demand wise demand for taxis could still be eaten into by private hire, as seems to be happening in Edinburgh.

There are also other long term trends such as interest rates which will influence values. For example, the low interest rates which have prevailed in the last years have boosted asset prices (most obviously housing) and taxi prices should not be an exception to this - cheap loans mean more money chasing plates, thus boosting their prices.

But there are also short-term factors which influence prices, and some of these have been alluded to earlier.

For example, if there's pessimism about the long term outlook for demand for taxis then clearly the prospect of lower returns will affect prices.

Probably more pertinent these days is the prospect of de-restriction - clearly if that was imminent then plate prices would reduce significantly.

Of course, all this assumes that those buying plate and thus influencing prices are fully informed as to what's going on, and thus this might explain why with the uncertainty in Edinburgh plate prices are actually still increasing or are at least stagnant. In short, this might be described as a false market, because people are buying plates unaware of the full implications of what's happening.

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Taxi Driver Online
www.taxi-driver.co.uk

A bubble, no less!

I wonder who will be left holding their plates if it bursts.

Could be costly.

But then again The City of Edinburgh Council may not do it that way.

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The higher the fewer.

The C.E.C have a wee problem called the "Interested Parties List" a 110 applicants who were refused a licence nearly 15 years ago but were entered onto this list.

At the present moment if the council go to the list they are handing someone a cheque for £50,000. I would take a bet most would sell given the chance.

How do they solve the problem of growing driver numbers, fewer drives and increasing plate premiums?

The problem just gets worse-how long before 50K becomes 80k?

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All animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others.
George Orwell, "Animal Farm"

I think waiting lists are present in quite a few areas which restrict taxi numbers, although one or two do operate a lottery system. Which is a cracking name in more ways than one.

As for loop-holes, well they have many. That said if a council surveys and more plates are issued, then they need to go somewhere, and providing the waiting list is fair, then I don't think there is any other way those plates should be issued.

The only places where (I'm aware) the waiting list system isn't/wasn't up to scratch is in Cardiff where a mush with upmteen plates also had most of the top places on the list, and Manchester where people who have already received a plate via a list, are near the top of the list again.

So it isn't perfect, but IMO the other systems are a lot less perfect.

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IDFIMH

The same bloke who held it before the bubble burst.

But it doesn't matter how many cabs there are, all that matters is the number of drivers.

So make standards higher for drivers, and the world need not end following the ending of taxi quotas.

70% of the country proves that.

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IDFIMH

The Interested Parties List in is not in fact a waiting list the applicants were refused, nor is there any provision for such a list in the Civic Act 1982.

In other words it's all made up.

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All animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others.
George Orwell, "Animal Farm"

I think Skull its all an artificial market, the fact that the actual licensing of vehicles and drivers to use the public road is undertaken by a different regime (The DVLA) appears to be conveniently dismissed, instead a concurrent system of licensing based upon archaic horse cab legislation is employed by LA's. Acknowledgement of the truth would effectively bring to an end the involvement of LA's, and bring the whole corrupt system crashing down.
Regards,
Jeff

Succinctly put Jeff.

But what a position to land yourself in as a council-here come and collect your 50K, will you take a cheque?

I am dying to see how they get themselves out of this one?

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All animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others.
George Orwell, "Animal Farm"

Clearly this whole thing in Edinburgh has gone on longer than it should have done.

It is equally clear, that to modernise such a complex and large set of issues such as these, puts it well into the realms of the judiciary.

I can't imagine many 21'st century QC's, however, being bowled over by the prospect of taking on such a major legal case. Not if they have to rely on evidence gathered by what is basically a person standing with a clipboard observing a taxi rank.

Not exactly a legally watertight method, by todays standards.

Maybe that's why it's all dragged on so long.

I reckon the first step should be to redesign that pesky Survey of Unmet Demand, so that it's results are beyond dispute.

There's plenty of cutting edge technology strutting its stuff in Edinburgh at the moment. Wouldn't be surprised if those Sigtec boys could knock something up in no time at all if C.E.C. were to ask them nicely.

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The higher the fewer.

I'm told Australia introduced laws making it compulsory for every taxi (they don't have private hire) to work within a computerised radio circuit. Most drivers who previously worked independently just clubbed together as co-operatives. Some drivers paid 'Bureau Fees' to another call centre for them to just handle their book and dispatch so they didn't have to have their own building and staff overheads. The government were then able to constantly monitor delay times experienced by telephone cutsomers ringing for a cab. (Australians pay more for 'telephone booked' taxis than 'flagged' taxis as there is always a booking fee added, unlike in the UK where it's more likely to be cheaper if you phone). When the phone booking delays were considered to be unacceptable, they issued more plates, de-valueing the investment of a lot of plate owners. This placed an ongoing emphasis on the plate owners to ensure their drivers worked a reasonable amount of 'peak time' hours in order to protect their investment. It appears to work too!

Regards

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Don't knock it, 'til you try it....

Hello DS,
There are many inherrent problems which would have to be addressed in attempting change. Prior to 1995 taxis(H/C) did have a distinct licence, since that time the government have introduced changes, whereby taxis are incorporated within the group of cars and small vans and no longer identified as distinct for the purpose of colllection of VEL duty, they pay the same General Rate as any other member of that group. To revert back to the original system and begin to issue mandatory licences that identify the vehicle as a taxi would highlight the fact that concurrent licence fees demanded by LA's is unsustainable. That would mean that the DfT would have to step in with additional funding if it wants the LA's to continue carrying out their statutory duties, to supplement the loss of revenue.
Thats just for starters! It's a real shambles.
Regards,
Jeff

Hiya Jeff,

You're right, it is a bit of a mess. The HC/PH two tier system is already so well established here, Australia's solutions wouldn't tranfer too well. One wonders whether a solution will ever be found. I reckon the majority of taxi passengers here on the Costa-Del-Mersey get a pretty good deal though, with low fares for an on the whole excellent service. And as a company Delta are more than happy with the current state of things (though I'm sure some of our HC rivals here in Sefton may beg to differ!)

Regards

DeltaStaff

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Don't knock it, 'til you try it....

Many UK LAs have a phone booking fee on the taxi tariff card, so to that extent they can be dearer phoned than flagged, and of course the same can apply to PH if they charge the taxi tariffs.

However, if you're talking about the pre-booked market more generally then you're probably correct.

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Taxi Driver Online
www.taxi-driver.co.uk