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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 8:04 pm 
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captain cab wrote:
allo allo, how dare you come onto this website with a theory which hasnt been previously approved. :lol:

dont agree with you....but will defend your right to say it. :wink:


We all defend his right to say it and indeed he has said it. Surely you afford the same sentiment to everyone else?

Mr Allo Allo put forward his master plan for change which amounts to less cabs and less cab drivers on the road in one breath and more cabs and more cab drivers on the road in another breath. Some of us find that a little inconsistant with reality. Perhaps he should come down to earth and reflect on what he's advocating, alternately you might wish to enroll him and his ideas into your little unrepresentative grouping because when push comes to shove he like the meeting of minds fellowship doesn't seem to have any answers?

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 8:53 pm 
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CABMAN wrote:
GOOD ITS NICE TO SEE A SCAB DRIVER KNICKED

We don't have minicabs anymore, all we have is un-licensed taxis. :wink:

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 12:50 am 
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JD wrote:
allo allo wrote:
Nowhere have I suggested that drivers should pay inflated prices.


JD wrote:
Then how much would you expect a driver to pay under your scheme? And what do you see as a non inflated price?


I'm not going to be drawn into playing your "answer all my questions in detail or I'll belittle what you've said" game. Plated vehicle prices would find their own level

Quote:
Unlike some, I don't think I have all the answers


To be quite frank looking at your proposals it would seem you don't have any answers, never mind "all"?

This is simply personal abuse, which I shall ignore.

Quote:
The market would determine prices, but as the supply would be large


I thought you said numbers were to be decided by local authorities so how can you say if they will be large or small? What criteria have you in mind to ensure numbers are large?

If you refer to my previous posts you would see that I propose a 1-tier system, the numbers in it would be set by the LA with reference to current HC & PHV numbers. This would mean that in the vast majority of cases the numbers of Taxis would be equal or similar to the combined current HC and PHV fleets and would therefore be "large" in relation to solely HC numbers

Quote:
and most if not all cab drivers could have their own plated taxi


You mean most cab drivers would have their own taxi from the limited supply that is available? So what happens to those that don't have their own cab?

See above and as I already said those who don't own their own vehicles would be able to rent from owners, but as there would be so many owners , this would keep rents down to reasonable levels.

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then I would doubt that plated Taxis would attract a huge premium.


So you don't know how many cabs are to be licensed by each authority yet you offer up an opinion that they won't attract a huge premium?

See above and refer to basic economic theory.

At the moment your authority is unrestricted and there is no value on a plate yet when it becomes restricted it will instantly obtain a value. So to what number should your local authority restrict Taxis?

Probably in the region of 400 for a town of 100,000 and growing, ( plus the Gatwick cabs at about 200)

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But hey ho, I could be wrong.


Not could, you are most certainly wrong.

Each to their own opinion

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However with a MUCH larger supply of plated vehicles the market would surely keep rents down to reasonable levels


We are all under the impression you want to reduce plated vehicles in order that you can make a decent living, so where do these increased vehicles fit into the equation? Under your scheme would there be more, or less vehicles?

See my answers above

JD wrote:
There is no evidence of that but there is evidence to the contrary. Therefore that assumption is incorrect.


Quote:
I'm sorry but basic economic theory should tell you that a large supply almost matching demand will place a very small price premium on the items being supplied. Your assertion is simply totally incorrect.


I am sorry to burst your bubble but the basic economic theory which you trumpet but can't explain is just pie in the sky. I said there was evidence to the contrary yet you make a rather childish statement about economic theory as though you know what you are talking about? You only have to look at Liverpool as an example to realise that your notion about plate premiums is as empty as your proposed blue print for change.

Liverpool went from having 300 vehicles to over 1400 and the plate premium is 50 grand. Manchester went from having 450 cabs to over a thousand and the plate premium is 50 grand. So before you start spouting off about economics in relation to the number of vehicles it might be wise if you did your homework?

Try drawing a supply and demand curve for these rather large cities and basic economic theory will tell you that demand for taxis exceeds supply by a considerable margin therefore plates will attract a significant premium. It's really so simple even a child could understand it.

Quote:
My suggestion is that Taxi numbers would be heavily influenced by current total HC & PHV numbers


I thought you said there would be a one tier system? Where have these private hire vehicles come from?

See above about how an LA would calculate Taxi numbers.

Quote:
therefore it is likely that most if not all aspiring Taxi drivers would be able to run their own Taxi


How can they run their own Taxi if you intend reducing supply to a level where in your opinion a person can make a decent living without working 75 hours a week? How many cabs do you intend to take off the road to meet your requirement of a decent living?

You make too many assumptions on my behalf. I am simply stating a desire on my part to allow drivers to earn a living and see their families. As I said before I do not have all the answers, what I am trying to do is outline what I believe to be a workable framework for the Taxi Industry which will allow ALL participants to benefit.

Quote:
and renting would be limited to new entrants or those unable/willing to buy a taxi themselves.


Who gets to choose the initial entrants and what makes you think you would be successful?

Initial entrants would most likely be current HC and PHV drivers. If there was an excess of drivers then either Grandfather Rights or a Ballot would be used to decide initial allocations. To be decided locally.

JD wrote:
A Rather bizarre analysis if you don't mind me saying so?


Quote:
I suggest you read, "Teach Yourself Economics".


lol I hope you are not suggesting that I read the same book that is responsible for your evaluation of the future of the Taxi trade?

Anything that teaches you about simple supply and demand theory would do.

JD wrote:
You don't know how many vehicles would be licensed because you have said it will be up to the local authority, you have given no criteria of who would and should be granted a license, you advocate a one tier system yet you now introduce private hire into the equation? You don't want plate premiums to exist but the very nature of your system suggests that plate premiums will be higher than ever before. You want to exclude hackney carriages that have a radio system from using Taxi ranks, no matter whether the radio system is for convenience, safety or obtaining work and you wouldn't allow punters to flag a cab within 100 yards of a Taxi rank?


You need to try to see things from a wider perspective, all the relevant questions have been answered above.

Quote:
Your ability to see the big picture seems to be obscured by your latching on to details to which I would not begin trying to dictate the answers, they would be for LA's and legislators to deal with.


If you don't have answers to the questions being asked of your preferred system, then I suggest you go back to the drawing board and start from scratch. Perhaps you should consider leaving the future of the taxi trade to the meeting of minds think tank but on second thoughts it would appear they don't have any answers either.

Ah, no one has the answers except JD??

JD wrote:
To me it sounds absurd but I suppose others might be convinced but then again, perhaps not?


Quote:
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder provided they possess vision.


Obviously the general concensus is that your vision is a little obscured?

I hope to have answered a few of your questions so that that you can now see the way to my land of hope and glory taxis with no sick or violent punters and huge tips???? So maybe I can lead you into the promised land????

JD
:D

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 1:01 am 
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TDO wrote:
allo allo wrote:
I'm sorry but basic economic theory should tell you that a large supply almost matching demand will place a very small price premium on the items being supplied. Your assertion is simply totally incorrect.



But if you had a very small supply the LA could easily bring supply and demand into equilibrium merely by raising prices, and this would in turn inflate premiums, so that doesn't concur with your theory.

MY idea is that the new taxis would likely be equivalent of the total number of current HC and PHV. There would be so many that plates could only attract a small premium if any

Anyway, if in effect what you're saying is that restricting the numbers doesn't make much difference then doesn't that defeat the purpose of what you're proposing?

No, the restriction would have a purpose as no new entrants could dilute earning potential. But the restriction would include all the telephone work currently undertaken by both PHV and HC but not surveyed or assessed in any way and would have the effect of levelling the playing field between current PHV and HC.

And you claim that very few drivers would be excluded. But if you look 20 years down the line and most of the current drivers have left the trade then the new kids on the block would either be renting or would have to buy a plate?


Thats true but it would happen gradually and plate premiums should not be excessive due to the large numbers of plated vehicles available.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 1:07 am 
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TDO wrote:
And if currently most cars are singled then the trade could easily double the amount of drivers in the trade, so you could in effect double the amount of cars on the road without releasing any more plates.

That, you clever person, is the achilles heel in my plan!
I had though of limiting badges as well as plates but as this is all only a theoretical discussion I felt it was a bit over the top.

So how does that help any driver who wants to remain an owner driver, and how does that square with your claim that supply and demand would be in equilibrium?


Oh well as you push me perhaps we should limit badges to...lets see... no more than 110% of plated vehicles!

PS and while we are at it how are we going to distribute a mixed fleet as we don't want 100% WAVs , now do we?

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 1:25 am 
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allo allo wrote:
MY idea is that the new taxis would likely be equivalent of the total number of current HC and PHV. There would be so many that plates could only attract a small premium if any


But you could have said the same about the Liverpool trade when numbers were restricted a decade or two ago, when there weren't that many PH. And I suspect that if PH had been included then and a one-tier system implemented then plates would be going for even more than they are now.

Quote:
No, the restriction would have a purpose as no new entrants could dilute earning potential. But the restriction would include all the telephone work currently undertaken by both PHV and HC but not surveyed or assessed in any way and would have the effect of levelling the playing field between current PHV and HC.


Well I like the latter idea, but as I said above if that had happened twenty years ago I suspect the plates would be worth more than now, because since the restrictions on HCs were imposed the PH has grown to take up increased demand, thus if there had been no PH growth then plates would be dearer than at present.

Quote:
Thats true but it would happen gradually and plate premiums should not be excessive due to the large numbers of plated vehicles available.


Ditto above.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 1:30 am 
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allo allo wrote:
[
Quote:
color=darkred]Oh well as you push me perhaps we should limit badges to...lets see... no more than 110% of plated vehicles!


So if you're limiting badges to a specified number then why bother limiting vehicle numbers?

Here's a better idea - why not limit badge numbers by quality control, and let vehicle numbers find their own level?



Quote:
PS and while we are at it how are we going to distribute a mixed fleet as we don't want 100% WAVs , now do we?[/color]


By incentives rather than one rule for some and another rule for the others.

For example, Dublin had quite a hefty fee for saloon plates (over £1,000 if I remember correctly), but WAV plates were free :D

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 1:59 am 
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TDO. for your information.. just to fill in a few gaps, when they started issuing licences in Liverpool there were more private hire than Hackney's, Remember their were only 300 Hackney's, and if I Remember rightly part of the condition of issue was that the driver had to of held a hackney or private hire Licence for at least two years, a great many plates went to private hire drivers, and the private hire fleets shrunk, but they have grown back. :wink:

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 2:09 am 
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TDO wrote:
Here's a better idea - why not limit badge numbers by quality control, and let vehicle numbers find their own level?


Now that sounds more like sense.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 7:11 am 
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allo allo wrote:
To some extent a passenger can be part of the problem in todays 2-tier system. They just want to get home/to work/out/in/wherever.
But you are absolutely correct, a PHV driver shouldn't take an unbooked pax.
He should give the pax a card with the number on it and tell him to phone the office while he waits in the pouring rain beside the Licensed and Legal PHV. 30 seconds later a Booking will come through and the ( now soaking ) pax can legally get in and be taken to his destination.


Of course he could have found somehwere dry and phoned a PH office if he couldn't find a taxi .............. and if he didn't know any numbers then many directory enquiry services now exist.

Or did he do that but was told it would take an hour to get him a PH car.

The point that the driver reversed up to the passenger suggests to me that he was concerned only that his legitimate fare was not coming out, if it was ever there in the first place.

B. Lucky :D

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 11:08 am 
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TDO wrote:
allo allo wrote:
[
Quote:
color=darkred]Oh well as you push me perhaps we should limit badges to...lets see... no more than 110% of plated vehicles!


So if you're limiting badges to a specified number then why bother limiting vehicle numbers?

Here's a better idea - why not limit badge numbers by quality control, and let vehicle numbers find their own level?



Quote:
PS and while we are at it how are we going to distribute a mixed fleet as we don't want 100% WAVs , now do we?[/color]


By incentives rather than one rule for some and another rule for the others.

For example, Dublin had quite a hefty fee for saloon plates (over £1,000 if I remember correctly), but WAV plates were free :D


These are all good suggestions and would be effective in bringing about the "Glorious Future Taxi World" that we would all enjoy :D

Visionary thinking ... that's what we need :P

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 11:09 am 
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allo allo wrote:
Try drawing a supply and demand curve for these rather large cities and basic economic theory will tell you that demand for taxis exceeds supply by a considerable margin therefore plates will attract a significant premium. It's really so simple even a child could understand it. My suggestion is that Taxi numbers would be heavily influenced by current total HC & PHV numbers


"If its so simple that a child can understand it" then why do you have so much difficulty?

I was under the impression you were screaming there wasn't enough work in your area because cabs had increased? In other words an oversupply of cabs to meet demand. Yet as soon as you put a cap on vehicles in your area even though there is an oversupply, a scarcity value arises.

How about you draw me one of your supply and demand charts for the current situation in your area today which is an unrestricted market and tomorrow when the hypothetical cap goes on licenses. The before and after effect? And then tell me why plates go from having no value to an instant value of thousands.

You proclaim to be an expert on supply and demand so I assume you understand what you are talking about.

If in 1981 a city with a population of 437,660 residents was serviced by 400 cabs which amounts to a ratio of 1094 persons per cab was to increase the number of cabs in 2007 to a 1000 servicing a decreased population of 422,300 amounting to 422 persons per cab then one would assume that the child in you would no doubt assume that supply had doubled in the last 26 years and the population had decreased. So what about demand? How do you measure demand in your theory? Do you measure it by the the length of time you wait for a job compared to 1981, do you measure it by the number of jobs you did in 1981 compared to 2007, do you measure it by how soon the ranks are cleared at busy periods, do you measure it by the number of cabs sat on a rank compared to 1981 or do you measure it by economic growth?

For you information, the reality in Manchester is that cabs are waiting longer on ranks are doing fewer jobs, ranks are cleared at weekends by 3 am compared to 4-30 5-00 in 1981, there are twice as many cabs ranked up and those who work the Airport are waiting twice as long for a job. Yet the plates are worth 50 grand and cab rental is dearer than London. So draw me one of your so called supply and demand charts for Manchester and tell me how much a plate should cost?

JD

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 11:13 am 
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MR T wrote:
TDO. for your information.. just to fill in a few gaps, when they started issuing licences in Liverpool there were more private hire than Hackney's, Remember their were only 300 Hackney's, and if I Remember rightly part of the condition of issue was that the driver had to of held a hackney or private hire Licence for at least two years, a great many plates went to private hire drivers, and the private hire fleets shrunk, but they have grown back. :wink:


This is economic theory at work in the real world, JD.

My proposed limit would stop a growth in PHV and allow drivers to benefit from their own efforts. Of course I'm not saying that the limit would be permanently in place and a survey of both pre-booked and street bookings would be conducted say every 5 years automatically and new plates (or badges) issued according to demand.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 11:30 am 
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allo allo wrote:
This is economic theory at work in the real world, JD.

My proposed limit would stop a growth in PHV and allow drivers to benefit from their own efforts.


Wherein lies the economic theory attached to putting a cap on numbers, in order to restrict a commodity or market? lol

Perhaps Alistair Darling could use you in his latest think tank on economic growth? Allo Allo has a great idea, lets put a cap on everything so some can make a decent living at the expense of others? Great idea.

JD

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 12:03 pm 
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JD wrote:
allo allo wrote:
This is economic theory at work in the real world, JD.

My proposed limit would stop a growth in PHV and allow drivers to benefit from their own efforts.


Wherein lies the economic theory attached to putting a cap on numbers, in order to restrict a commodity or market? lol

Perhaps Alistair Darling could use you in his latest think tank on economic growth? Allo Allo has a great idea, lets put a cap on everything so some can make a decent living at the expense of others? Great idea.

JD


There you go again, being selective in your quoting, tsk tsk tsk!
And getting personal in your insults/sarcasm.

This really will have to stop, why can't we debate ideas like two grown adults ( ok I hold my hand up I was a bit rude to you too).

Having read your info on Manchester, I now realise where the difference between us lies. You are thinking like a Manchester HC driver and I am thinking like a Crawley PHV driver.

The reason economics apparently don't work for Mnachester HCs is that they have not taken into account the effects of large numbers of PHVs.

If you regard the whole industry as two sides of one coin then you begin to see the huge effect telephone bookings have.

My proposals are designed to take all sources of work into account, allow a reasonable number of Taxis to service them in both pre-booked and street bookings form and serve the public in a better way overall while not allowing an oversupply to erode earnings, and to stop drivers from being tied to operators/owners/radio circuits.

There are economic and environmental disbenefits from an oversupply of taxis....... they clog up ranks & streets while parked or cruising for business, they use up precious fossil fuel to no purpose, they create more polution than otherwise..........because drivers cant make a living doing reasonable hours so they stay out longer and longer reducing the number of jobs per hour done by all drivers so they stay out longer and longer etc etc etc.

I suppose my idea is to take all current HC and PHV in the country and make them Taxis then cap the numbers there and let market forces do the rest. However there are a mass of details to that plan that I do not pretend to have the time to work out. I'll have to get to work soon it's Friday lunchtime!

Peace.

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