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captain cab
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 10:56 am 
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RISKS, ASSUMPTIONS AND SENSITIVITIES

Assumptions:

All the assumptions that underpin specific cost/benefit estimates are indicated alongside the relevant discussion.

However there are broader assumptions that inform our approach to the impact assessment and these are as follows:

1. Latent demand responds to improved provision in taxi services and this facilitates the further increase in taxi demand;

2. The groups identified in the consultation paper as potentially excludable from the licensing regimes would all be excluded (eg driver guides, childminders, volunteer drivers);

3. Current arrangements regarding government funding for licensee training remain in place.

Risks:

1. Entry controls are not fully removed and the full benefits are not delivered particularly as it relates to reduced consumer detriment through reduced waiting time – medium risk;

2. Councils do not pursue a managed approach to licensing. This carries the reputational risk to the taxi industry if experienced drivers leave and less experienced drivers provide an inferior service – medium risk.

3. The Secretary of State and Welsh Ministers may choose to exclude fewer groups than indicated in assumption 2. This is a low risk.

4. There is a high risk that given the current economic climate funding of licensee training is no longer available – in which case licensee will be required to self-fund.

Sensitivities

All cost/benefit estimates that rely on a range have been indicated throughout the impact assessment.

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captain cab
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 10:58 am 
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It's nice to see future law based upon assumptions which is a great word and includes 'guess'.

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captain cab
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 11:01 am 
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Quote:
4. There is a high risk that given the current economic climate funding of licensee training is no longer available – in which case licensee will be required to self-fund.



Did anybody notice that there is a "High Risk" of funding to train you all not being there which means you have to "self-fund".

](*,)

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captain cab
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 11:15 am 
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They appear to have missed the risks of driver suicides, family rows, cab repossessions, job stress and fatigue.

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MR T
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 6:36 pm 
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Quote:
3. Current arrangements regarding government funding for licensee training remain in place.

Well this is a bit naughty.... or if they don't know very careless... since I was speaking to a training provider just last Friday... who informs me... that funding for training drivers will cease next year.....

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captain cab
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 7:13 pm 
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MR T wrote:
Quote:
3. Current arrangements regarding government funding for licensee training remain in place.

Well this is a bit naughty.... or if they don't know very careless... since I was speaking to a training provider just last Friday... who informs me... that funding for training drivers will cease next year.....



yes.....but how do you make sense of that when the following is stated three or four sentences later?

Quote:
4. There is a high risk that given the current economic climate funding of licensee training is no longer available – in which case licensee will be required to self-fund

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captain cab
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 8:08 pm 
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More conspiracy theories;

http://www.youtube.com/user/Xendrius

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Sussex
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 8:14 pm 
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captain cab wrote:
1. Latent demand responds to improved provision in taxi services and this facilitates the further increase in taxi demand;

I say they are correct on that assumption.

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captain cab
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 8:17 pm 
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Sussex wrote:
captain cab wrote:
1. Latent demand responds to improved provision in taxi services and this facilitates the further increase in taxi demand;

I say they are correct on that assumption.


perhaps.....but isnt it a demand that would be there if there was a service, but they dont actually know either way, so in other words its a guess?

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Sussex
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 8:21 pm 
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captain cab wrote:
perhaps.....but isnt it a demand that would be there if there was a service, but they dont actually know either way, so in other words its a guess?

I think they will go back to their economic text books.

Or look at the planes, more available, more used, same with the trains and (in many areas) buses.

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captain cab
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 8:24 pm 
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Sussex wrote:
I think they will go back to their economic text books.

Or look at the planes, more available, more used, same with the trains and (in many areas) buses.


Really, planes aren't flying to full capacity, buses are heavily subsidised and nationally carry 5 passengers, and trains? you cant be serious. :wink:

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Sussex
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 8:26 pm 
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captain cab wrote:
Really, planes aren't flying to full capacity, buses are heavily subsidised and nationally carry 5 passengers, and trains? you cant be serious. :wink:

Trains defo, planes defo, buses in many areas defo.

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toots
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 11:17 pm 
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Sussex wrote:
captain cab wrote:
Really, planes aren't flying to full capacity, buses are heavily subsidised and nationally carry 5 passengers, and trains? you cant be serious. :wink:

Trains defo, planes defo, buses in many areas defo.


Defo what :?

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Dusty Bin
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2012 3:44 am 
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captain cab wrote:
yes.....but how do you make sense of that when the following is stated three or four sentences later?


Er, you were comparing an assumption with a risk?

I'm assuming I'll wake up later today, but there's a risk I might be dead 8-[
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captain cab
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2012 7:44 am 
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Dusty Bin wrote:
captain cab wrote:
yes.....but how do you make sense of that when the following is stated three or four sentences later?


Er, you were comparing an assumption with a risk?

I'm assuming I'll wake up later today, but there's a risk I might be dead 8-[


Are you telling me there is going to be money available for training next year?

So they're assuming funding will be available.....but theres a risk there wont be.....so it'll get dropped? no f*cking chance.

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