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PostPosted: Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:35 pm 
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Interesting article from The Motley Fool. https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/ ... ber-again/

What's the Bull Case for Uber, Again?

Ridesharing giant Uber (NYSE:UBER) doesn't make any money. In fact, it's not even close to turning a profit. It wasn't close before the pandemic, and it's not close now. Through the third quarter of 2020, Uber's cumulative net loss since the company was founded totaled $22 billion.

Of course, the pandemic has devastated demand for ridesharing. But even before the pandemic, Uber's dominant market share in the U.S. wasn't nearly enough for the company to turn a profit. Yes, Uber recently began touting that its ridesharing business was profitable on an adjusted EBITDA basis. But adjusted EBITDA is a meaningless metric. "Think of the basic intellectual dishonesty that comes when you start talking about adjusted EBITDA," famed investor Charlie Munger said earlier this year.

With Uber unable to turn a profit despite dominating the market for ridesharing, the bull case for the stock for a long time centered around self-driving cars. Today, Uber takes a cut of the revenue generated from each ride. When self-driving cars eliminate drivers, Uber could take it all.

There were always a few problems with this idea. For one, self-driving car technology is still far from being robust enough to be used is any situation without human intervention, and it may never reach that point. Second, Uber would need to have some sort of advantage in self-driving technology over its rivals, beating out all the other tech companies pursuing the same goal. Third, Uber's asset-light model of not actually owning any of the cars in its fleet would presumably be turned on its head. Fourth, given that rides are essentially a commodity, prices would plunge assuming rivals also had access to self-driving cars.

Out with self-driving cars, in with food delivery

Uber is now reportedly in talks to sell its self-driving unit, a clear indication that the company is giving up on the idea that self-driving tech will turn into a competitive advantage . So, what's the bull case now? Food delivery, apparently. The pandemic has greatly increased demand for delivery from restaurants, and Uber is doubling down by acquiring rival Postmates for $2.6 billion. The company will face off against market leader DoorDash, which recently filed to go public.

Uber's delivery business is growing at a breakneck pace. Adjusted revenue from the delivery business nearly tripled during the third quarter of 2020. But like the ridesharing business, this is all probably structurally unprofitable.

DoorDash has a 50% share of the U.S. local food delivery market, according to its S-1 filing. The company lost $149 million through the first nine months of 2020 on revenue of $1.9 billion. Let me be clear: Right now is the absolute best environment for restaurant delivery that there has ever been and ever will be. Restaurants were entirely closed for dine-in service during the worst of the pandemic in many areas, capacity limits are still in place in some places, and diners remain skittish about returning to restaurants. At the same time, restaurants have been forced to turn to delivery just to survive. This is the golden age of third-party restaurant delivery, and even the overwhelming market leader can't make the numbers work out.

The problem is that restaurant deliveries are a commodity. Nobody cares how the food gets to their door, as long as it arrives on time without any problems. Nobody cares who Chipotle uses as their delivery partner as long as it works. There's no pricing power whatsoever.

And after the pandemic is over, it's hard to imagine expensive restaurant deliveries being nearly as popular as they are right now. Once you add the delivery fee, service fee, and tip, getting a meal delivered is an expensive proposition. Some of this growth is going to reverse itself.

Uber is currently valued at around $84 billion, right around its all-time high. The self-driving narrative is dead. The food delivery narrative fundamentally doesn't make any sense. What's the bull case for Uber stock, then? There isn't one. This is a company that sells commodity services and is valued like a tech company. Stay very far away.

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 7:41 pm 
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Current price $50.72 a share which is a huge difference to the $13 it was earlier this year.

Quite why it is that high is for those really clever investors of this company that is $22,000,000,000.00 down since it was founded.

It's biggest market in terms of punters is India, and the government there has just announced new rules that mean drivers must get at least 80% of the fare, and surge pricing is limited to one and a half times normal fare.

https://techcrunch.com/2020/11/27/india ... r-and-ola/

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:30 pm 
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Currently $53.28 but rumours are that price might be going south.

Some of the big investors like Goldman Sachs and Softbank looking to sell a lot of their shares.

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 7:17 pm 
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the key to any ponzi scheme is to continue to grow that is the secret of ubers success everyone who has ever invested in them so far has made lots of moolah :wink:

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:16 pm 
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Uber doing OK, but Elon Musk doing fantastic

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:17 pm 
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wannabeeahack wrote:
Uber doing OK, but Elon Musk doing fantastic

Both the above due to US institutions having nothing else to invest their money in.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 6:44 pm 
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Did get up to $64.04 but slipping back down again.

Now $53.71.

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2021 3:18 pm 
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Sussex wrote:
Did get up to $64.04 but slipping back down again.

Now $53.71.



and what price did they launch at ?

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2021 5:15 pm 
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edders23 wrote:
Sussex wrote:
Did get up to $64.04 but slipping back down again.

Now $53.71.

and what price did they launch at ?

IPO was $45 a share, currently $51.75 down from a high of about $63.

Losses through the years come to over $20,000,000,000.

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2021 8:03 pm 
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BUT

had you bought uber shares would you now be in profit or loss ?

everything else is immaterial your profit or loss on the investment is the criterion companies are judged on

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:04 pm 
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Currently $59.64, just over 33% up since IPO.

It would seem Uber (taxi/PH side) saying they had a much better month March 2021 than March 2020 has the so called money wizards delighted.

What they don't seem to have fathomed out is that Uber lose money on every job, so the more they do, they more they lose.

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PostPosted: Sat May 01, 2021 6:42 pm 
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Currently $54.77, so it's been fluctuating around the $55 point for a while.

Their 2021 Q1 results are in on Wednesday, and no doubt another week of spin is on the cards, as well as a another $500,000,000-$800,000,000 quarterly loss.

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PostPosted: Fri May 07, 2021 6:30 pm 
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Dropped down 9% to $47.10 as the markets aren't impressed with the latest numbers.

Might have something to do with another $359,000,000 loss during the first three months of this year.

Apparently the Supreme Court loss will cost them $600,000,000.

My heart bleeds for them.

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PostPosted: Fri May 07, 2021 7:04 pm 
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Sussex wrote:
Dropped down 9% to $47.10 as the markets aren't impressed with the latest numbers.

Might have something to do with another $359,000,000 loss during the first three months of this year.

Apparently the Supreme Court loss will cost them $600,000,000.

My heart bleeds for them.


HOW do they lose money?

Owning a ph firm with a dozen drivers, or 100 dozen, is a licence to print money.

How do Uber with tens of thousands of drivers throughout the world, taking their massive cut, manage to lose money? Must be a humongous sofa in the head office.

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PostPosted: Fri May 07, 2021 7:31 pm 
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Quote:
HOW do they lose money?

They pay out much more than they take in.

They have subsidised fares since their inception.

Possibly more than $20,000,000,000 worth. :shock:

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