Taxi Driver Online

So it seems there was a half-hour discussion about the driver shortage on GB News at lunchtime. Suspect almost everyone on here will have missed it, but my attention has been drawn to a YouTube video of the programme, which I have now dutifully watched

It's part of Liam Halligan's On The Money programme. Starts at about 8.20, and ends about 37.00, with a several-minute break in the middle.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTBWb7wKpn8

Nothing particularly new for anyone following the debate on here, but still worth a watch to see how these things are portrayed in the wider world, although GB News of course appeals to a particular viewer demographic

Anyway, main trade contributors are the LTDA's Steve McNamara, and the NHPTA's Dave Lawrie.

Of course, Steve's contribution obviously London-oriented, while Dave's anaylsis biased towards the provinces.

But thought Steve's analyis was quite astute given that he's in London, although obviously it's all quite brief.

But, in particular, couldn't understand Dave Lawrie's point at 34.00, about the stats and the three-year cycle for driver renewals.

I think he's trying to say that the three-year cycle will distort the figures, which I would agree with - drivers who may have given up the trade during lockdown might not show up in the stats for a year or two, which is certainly a factor here in Fife.

But he says that this year is the first year of the three-year cycle for driver renewals?

Which I don't understand, because:

1 There's no three-year standard for badge, across England and Wales, is there (certainly isn't in Scotland)?

2 Even if there was, they'd be renewed on a rolling basis, surely, and the renewal cycle wouldn't happen for all badges in the same year?

3 And even if there was a renewal cycle of three-year badges all starting in the same year, it wouldn't be the same in every licensing authority, surely?

I suspect he's either talking about one atypical authority, or I'm missing a point he's making about how lockdown has affected the renewals process?

Anyway, I once had that Liam Halligan in the back of my taxi

Must have been about 20 years ago now, when I suspect he was economics correspondent on Channel 4 News. He's quite a distinctive figure, but can't think now of how else I would have recognised him but for his position on a TV news programme

At some time, and I can't be arsed to work it out, the new three-year rule came in and every new license was a three-year one.

So in theory the vast majority of those will all reissue at the same time.

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IDFIMH

I think the question being asked is will fares go up to compensate for driver's shortages.

My answer is in many areas yes, there is no other option if operators want folks to come back to the trade.

Interesting that no one mentioned that one of the main causes of driver shortages is the fact many Eastern and Southern Europeans have gone home and don't appear to be flocking back.

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IDFIMH

At least Trotsky's mate at the GMB gives migration out as a reason behind the shortages.

https://www.ft.com/content/8d118350-ba4 ... 1996227f5c

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IDFIMH

Ah, thanks, that makes sense.

So if this is the first year of the renewals cycle, then presumably the number of badges in issue won't have dropped too much even if the drivers have given up, so maybe the NPHCA figures are in the right ball park after all

But of course the emphasis is usually on vehicle numbers, and they'll still be on a one-year cycle?

Anyway, bit of a rabbit hole as regards getting accurate figures, and can't really be bothered spending much time on it all.

But plenty of sources, like GB News and the FT article, dutifully parrotting the NPHCA's figures saying that more than half of drivers have disappeared...