Doom wrote:
gusmac wrote:
@ Doom.
If the Argies had decided to invade the Falklands now, instead of 30 years ago, do you think with our current troop numbers and the state of the RN's surface fleet, that we would have any chance of ejecting them?
They wouldn't get near the islands again, most of the oil exploring is being done by American owned firms, so there's reason number one, and here's reason number 2
It's not about the Arg anymore anyway, much bigger threats are growing by the day from elsewhere, the Arg thing is a political bluff to gain home support, facts are though is the only Arg that want the Falklands are their government, the normal Arg person doesn't much care, and a lot of Arg ppl now own property on the islands anyway.
I'm going to assume you misread the question Doom.
Rewind to 1st April 1982.
The UK was in the process of implementing a defence review, in reality another cost cutting exercise. The majority of the cuts were to fall on the RN. It was to be reduced to a surface fleet of 50 frigates and destroyers, based in the North Atlantic performing an anti submarine role within range of shore based air cover.
Aircraft carriers were not required and in future the RN would not operate any. A deal had already been struck to sell the Invincible to Australia, and the Hermes was due to go to the breakers.
The ice patrol ship Endurance was on her final patrol, as she too had fallen foul of John Knott's axe. Even the Royal Marine detachment was considered too expensive to maintain.
Meanwhile the Tory government was spending a colossal sum replacing Polaris. (does all this sound familiar BTW?)
Now the real truth is, if the Argies had waited even 6 months, they could have taken the Islands without firing a shot and the RN would not have had the ships to recover them.
Thatcher would have been left with egg all over her face and Britain's most unpopular PM (as she was at the time) would have ended up as popular as a fart in a spacesuit. The Tories would have been slaughtered by the CND loving Michael Foot in 1983.
Trident would have been cancelled and the yanks unceremoniously chucked out of Greenham Common and The Holy Loch.
Now I realise that the Falklands now have a decent defence which is more than enough to stop the Argies having any ideas of another invasion, but if the 1982 invasion hadn't happened when it did, none of these defences would be there now, and its likely the Malvinas would have been Argentinian for most of the last 30 years. The UK would certainly be a different country by now as well.
If the Argies invaded now
instead of 1982, The UK would not be able to reclaim the islands. Again we have no aircraft carriers and the surface fleet is smaller now than was envisioned by the Tories in 1981. The Army is also substantially smaller now, and the islands are still out of range for the RAF. (They don't even have the Vulcan bombers any more.)
Trident's replacement is a costly white elephant, which this country can ill afford. Nothing has really been learned. The same mistakes are being made all over again.